Canada, We Hardly Knew Ye

The world’s longest land border is the over 5000 miles between the United States and Canada.  It is also the world’s longest unguarded border.

This may be changing.  Last week Canada revealed its military is modeling a US invasion.  The Canadian response would reportedly involve mimicking the Afghan mujahideen and using Canada’s size and harsh terrain to tie down invading forces and inflict unacceptable casualties. 

Americans take for granted the advantages the United States gains from living in a peaceful neighborhood.  But other major powers face potentially hostile countries next door and have to plan accordingly.  Russia borders China in the east—friendly for now, but not in the past—and NATO countries in the West.  China faces Russia, plus bitter enemy Vietnam to the south, nuclear-armed India to its west, and rich and powerful adversaries nearby, including South Korea and Japan. 

Unfriendly neighbors require extensive border infrastructure.  The Russian Border Guard Service, for instance, numbers some 170,000 troops.  In countries with dangerous neighbors, the military must continually plan, train, and equip for possible hostile action from next door.  There are almost always unresolved territorial disputes that can quickly escalate into armed confrontation.

The United States has been protected by two oceans but also by the absence of any threat from Canada or Mexico.  Neither country maintains forces designed to threaten the US, and the US is not postured to carry out operations in either country. 

Until now. Trump’s reckless statements about making Canada the 51st state have alarmed Canadians.  Trump and senior administration officials have made frequent hints about the need to intervene unilaterally in Mexico to fight criminals and terrorists.  The new National Security Strategy asserts an American right to rule the Western Hemisphere.  Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been threatened, imposed and rescinded for blatantly political ends.  Unilateral action against Venezuela and threats to annex Greenland are further convincing Canadians and Mexicans that the United States could turn on them without warning.    

Americans may be surprised to know that Canada—Canada!— has emerged as perhaps the most outspoken opponent of the Trump administration’s vision for the world.  Two weeks ago at Davos Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (who is ironically only in power because Trump angered Canadian voters so much they turned against the Conservative Party in last spring’s elections) delivered a widely praised speech that distilled what Canada and many other countries fear, and how they plan to push back.

Carney said what we are experiencing now is not temporary, but a ‘disruption’ in the global order.  The United States is abandoning or weaponizing the multilateral institutions it helped create, and no longer sees itself as acting for the good of anyone other than itself. 

 “…great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.

Canadians know that our old, comfortable assumptions that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity and security, that assumption is no longer valid. 

Canada is responding immediately by reducing its dependence on the US and strengthening ties with other economic and strategic partners.

We are fast-tracking $1 trillion of investments in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors and beyond. We’re doubling our defence spending by the end of this decade, and we’re doing so in ways that build our domestic industries. And we are rapidly diversifying abroad. 

We’ve agreed to a comprehensive strategic partnership with the EU, including joining SAFE, the European defence procurement arrangements. We have signed 12 other trade and security deals on four continents in six months.

In the past few days, we’ve concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar. We’re negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines and Mercosur.

The long run response is for ‘middle powers’ like Canada to cooperate and work around the United States to shore up the rules-based international system.

Our view is the middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.

In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: compete with each other for favour, or combine to create a third path with impact. We shouldn’t allow the rise of hard power to blind us to the fact that the power of legitimacy, integrity and rules will remain strong if we choose to wield it together.

The United States has always been willing to occasionally use its domination of international finance and its global military power for its own advantage.  Other countries have chafed but until now considered the benefits outweighed the costs, because the US was seen as committed to a system of mutual benefit.  But under Trump that is no longer the case.  Middle powers like Canada are actively seeking alternatives; over time, American power will drastically decline. The power of rivals such as China will increase.

One clear implication of Carney’s approach will be less defense cooperation. Canada is reportedly reconsidering whether to buy 88 American F-35 fighters, with Swedish Gripen aircraft as the likely alternative. Canada’s new Defense Investment Agency is prioritizing purchases from non-US suppliers, and Sweden is offering Canada a co-production agreement that would create 12600 Canadian jobs.

Many European countries have voiced concerns that military dependence on the US is no longer safe. The American supply chain may be abruptly broken for political reasons. US weapons could be designed with built-in kill mechanisms allowing the US to disable them when it pleases. Canada shares these fears.

Back to that long border. Today it is barely noticeable.  But tomorrow it may bristle with barbed wire, watch-towers, and sophisticated sensors.  Americans will miss the old Canada when it’s gone.  We will have only ourselves to blame.