There are instructive similarities between the two natural disasters we now face, the immediate one from Covid-19, and the ongoing one from global warming. Maybe, just maybe, America’s experience with one crisis will make it more willing to consider the massive public response needed to deal with another.
I. Speed matters. Everyone now realizes that even a short delay in responding to the spread of Covid-19 has big consequences. More people get sick, more hospitals get overwhelmed, more people die. Hesitating because you distrust experts and scientists, or because you want to believe it’s some kind of political plot, is disastrous. If you move fast and move big, however, you can flatten the curve and keep a very serious situation from becoming a nightmare.
We long ago lost our chance to flatten the curve on global warming. We will have to deal with the consequences, the droughts and rising oceans and dying forests, just as we have to dealwith the consequences of the virus. But it is not too late to make a difference, and acting today is better than acting tomorrow.
II. This is not just a technical problem. No one says about the pandemic that we should count on scientists to fix it and meanwhile we should just go on with business as usual. We are of course trying hard to find a vaccine and other treatments. But everyone realizes that this is also an economic and social crisis, and that our responses need to go way beyond the norm. We are throwing the kitchen sink at the economy to keep people and companies afloat. We are considering formerly crazy ideas like sending people government checks and offering free government provided medical services. We are changing our personal behavior quickly and radically as we realize that our actions matter to everyone else, and vice versa.
The climate crisis is likewise not just an engineering challenge, though many see it that way. They hope some technical fix will let us live the same as always, but without destroying the planet. This is wishful thinking. Our response requires us to move from one economic paradigm to another. Many people will face a wrenching transition. Without support, people will resist, and the transition will fail. This demands big public programs—training and unemployment benefits and guaranteed healthcare and so on.
That’s exactly what the Green New Deal tries to do. Conservatives and centrists scoffed at the cost, but are now eager to throw trillions (with a T) into our pandemic response. The lesson here is, we have the resources, we just need to have the will to use them.
As with the pandemic, our response to the climate crisis has to include new ways of being in the world. We will have to consume less, travel less, make do with fewer cheap conveniences. We will have to be less individualistic—to be blunt, less selfish—and take into account how our actions affect our neighbors, communities, and the world. Unlike the pandemic, however, these changes will not be temporary.
III. Nothing works without trust. Americans can’t just be ordered to comply with social distancing and other alterations of personal behavior. They have to be convinced and they have to accept facts and understand the consequences of their actions. One reason our response has been less than stellar is a broad lack of trust in government and in authorities of all kinds. Half the population strongly distrusts our current leadership. The other half strongly distrusts almost all sources of objective information, and instead believed initial partisan messages that the coronavirus was a liberal plot to bring down Trump and destroy capitalism.
China, South Korea, and Singapore seem to be keeping the contagion at bay more successfully than in the West. China has the power to require obedience, but the fact is most Chinese think highly of their leaders and believe they have their best interests at heart. There are clear cultural differences at work here that transcend political systems. It’s a cliché, but in Asia the individual counts for less, and family and community for more. American individualism has come to its logical conclusion in Trump’s egotism and selfishness: “America First.” This is no basis for the cooperation and self-sacrifice any community needs in a time of troubles.
The contrast between different approaches could have lasting effects. China is already seeking to capitalize on the perception that it has responded effectively to the pandemic and is a responsible global actor. If this is successful, China will try to do the same with its aggressive national projects to fight global warming.
In America we have a ruling party that dislikes and distrusts the government that it runs. It has done its best to discredit, browbeat, and sideline career government workers. Now it needs them to do their jobs in a no-kidding emergency, but morale is low, key management slots have been deliberately left empty, and incompetent hacks fill many positions. You can’t kick the dog for three years, and then in year four expect it to leap up and wag its tail when you ask it to protect you.
The response to climate change likewise depends on trust. Do we believe what the scientists and experts say? Do our government and our elected leaders have our best interests at heart? Do we see other Americans as fellow citizens, or potential enemies? Much of our citizenry answers these questions with a resounding ‘no.’
We cannot turn attitudes around overnight. For a long time the prevailing ideology in American life has fortified selfishness and mocked the idea of public interest. In many parts of our country the notion of disinterested, public-spirited government workers is met with gales of laughter.
Americans have always been skeptical of government, but the back to back crises of the Depression and World War II changed attitudes by showing that government could improve lives and accomplish big things. Today that trust is gone, eaten away by Vietnam and Watergate, but also by an unrelenting right-wing critique that questions the very possibility of public service. This attack on government is a thinly disguised attack on democracy itself. It is designed to weaken the state and make it vulnerable to corruption by special interests, and it has succeeded in convincing many Americans that government is nothing but a swamp in need of draining by any means necessary.
Much of the opposition to climate action stems from a reluctance by the public to empower what is viewed as a corrupt and incompetent bureaucracy. Conservative leaders worry that if government is allowed to act effectively, it will undermine their narrative that only the private sector can be trusted. But if our institutions are given the support and resources to cope effectively with disease it could make Americans rethink these stereotypes.
IV. Reality can only be denied for so long. Today, those who initially downplayed the virus threat have had to turn 180 degrees. When your spouse or neighbor goes to the hospital, it’s not fake news anymore. The same is happening with climate denial as Australia burns and seas rise and big investors make it clear that it’s time to get out of oil and gas. Soon a majority of Americans, including conservatives, will abandon their denial and demand action.
As that happens, we will need to be able to offer clear, believable plans backed by leaders who can be trusted to do the right thing. There will be plenty of conservative responses that don’t take into account the poor and marginalized, and are designed to enrich corporations and the wealthy. When a crisis hits, it’s too late to come up with new ideas. The ideas that get implemented are ones that are readily available, have been fleshed out, and are already ‘in the air.’
This is why I think it is so important to make the Green New Deal familiar and to anticipate questions and criticism. It must be the first thing that anxious leaders reach for when the public demand for action becomes irresistible. Already many of the specific projects embodied in the Green New Deal are broadly popular. To the extent possible they should be incorporated into programs to stimulate the economy in this current crisis; this will be the springboard for future action.