President Trump has frequently blamed Ukraine for getting in a fight with a bigger, more powerful state. It’s a way to sound realistic in support of his desire to end the war on terms favorable to Russia. The smart thing to do, for Ukraine, is to take the deal being offered by Moscow, and brokered by the United States. Before things get even worse. Because you can’t win.
A few days ago Trump said on Fox and Friends that “Russia is a powerful military nation. You know, whether people like it or not, it’s a powerful nation. It’s a much bigger nation. It’s not a war that should have been started. You don’t do that. You don’t take on a nation that’s 10 times your size.”
This is a puzzling thing for any American to say, since America owes its existence to a successful war against a much larger and more powerful nation. In 1775 the population of the thirteen colonies is estimated to have been about 2.5 million, of whom some 460000 were slaves (this number does not include Native Americans). The population of Great Britain was approximately 8 million, or some four times greater.
In calculating the actual number of soldiers these populations could provide, we have to remember that a considerable number of colonists were loyalists who supported the crown. Others remained neutral, not actively supporting either side. Estimates of the loyalist size range from 20-30% of the population.
· If we assume that 25% were loyalists or stayed neutral, the population supporting the revolution was closer to 1.5 million, while that supporting Great Britain was 8.5 million, or 5.7 times greater.
· The current population of Ukraine is 38 million, and of Russia 146 million, or 3.8 times greater.
Of course numbers alone are not a measure of military capacity. Great Britain at this time was vastly superior to the colonies in almost every way: in weapons, in trained manpower, in military experience, and especially in naval power. During the 18th century Britain had engaged in a series of successful major wars on land and sea, on the European continent as well as in North America, that had greatly strengthened its military capabilities. In particular, by the time of the Revolution, Britain had the world’s largest and most powerful navy.
Great Britain was also vastly superior economically. Apart from its American colonies, it controlled extremely valuable plantations in the Caribbean. It was in the forefront of developing steam technology and exploiting its abundant coal reserves. It had a developed manufacturing sector and global trade ties, while the Americas were overwhelmingly agrarian. The British economy is estimated to have been some 10 times as large as that of the 13 colonies. Britain was able to use its money to augment its regular forces with some 30,000 Hessian mercenaries, who made up 25% of British land forces during the war.
Using the Trumpian calculus, it was therefore foolish of the Americans to fight such a war. There were plenty of nay-sayers at the time making the same hard-nosed arguments. The rebels should accept British peace offers, such as those of the so-called Carlisle Commission in 1778.
The Americans of course did not accept and went on to win. But they didn’t do it on their own. They were aided by a great European power, France, which provided money, training, and arms and eventually direct military support. French assistance greatly complicated British strategy, boosted American morale, and kept the highly-motivated but outgunned Americans in the field long enough to wear down the British. France at decisive moments, such as the battle of Yorktown in 1881 that effectively ended the war, was able to make up for the Americans lack of naval power.
Ukraine too can win, provided someone plays the role of France. The United States today has every reason to fill that role.
· France was eager to weaken its rival by separating it from a rich and strategically important colonial possession; the United States should not want Russia to colonize Ukraine and seize control of its mineral wealth, industrial capacity, rich farmland, and strategic position on the Black Sea.
· France hoped an independent America would become an opponent of Britain and ally and trading partner of France; the United States, and its European allies, would benefit greatly from a strong, free Ukraine that helps check Russian expansionism, with an economy integrated into Europe and the West.
The American Revolution is of course only one of many examples of smaller forces defeating larger ones and changing the course of history. Maybe we can’t expect Trump to be conversant with the Persian Wars, or the Siege of Malta. But it isn’t too much to ask that the President of the United States know something about the history of his own country.